Launch Operations
Part of DTC launch operations
Planning launch stock around a cautious demand estimate
Build cautious launch demand cases, then compare the first stock order with supplier constraints, cash needs and available-to-sell quantity.
Estimate orders for a defined first selling period. Compare that estimate with supplier minimums and cash available. Keep expected demand, units ordered and units available to sell as separate figures. A supplier minimum is a purchasing constraint, not evidence of demand.
Build variant-level cases
For each route expected to bring buyers to the store, record the audience, offer and basis for expected orders. A sign-up or favourable comment may inform a range, but it is not an order. If evidence is thin, say so plainly and make the low case cautious.
Estimate each sellable variant. Interest in a product family does not establish the split between sizes or compatibility options. Use the same period and product version across cases, and mark untested splits as assumptions.
| Case | Question it answers |
|---|---|
| Low | How much cash could remain tied up if sales are slow or concentrated in a few variants? |
| Working | What quantity does the most defensible current estimate support? |
| High | How will the store avoid overselling if demand exceeds the working case? |
These are planning scenarios, not measured demand levels.
Translate the estimate into an order
For each variant, start with expected orders during the first period. Add a stated allowance only for a specific risk, such as replacement lead time or units that may fail the receipt check. Subtract units already received and fit for sale. The result is a planning quantity to compare with the supplier's minimum order, order multiple, lead time and payment terms; it is not an automatic purchase order.
If a minimum greatly exceeds the cautious demand case, estimate how much stock and cash may remain tied up. Ask whether a smaller range, staged production or a different supplier arrangement is possible. Do not assume a later promotion will clear surplus stock profitably. Keep packaging, dispatch and support payments in the cash plan alongside the stock commitment.
Set a review point and a reorder rule before launch. Estimate demand during the supplier's replacement lead time, then add only the buffer the business has chosen for an identified risk. Confirm lead time with the supplier; a generic number copied from another brand is a weak basis for the rule.
Key Inventory and Cash Considerations Before Launch
- Supplier Minimum Order
- Compare with cautious demand case to assess risk of tied-up cash
- Cash Tied Up Risk
- High if minimum order exceeds low-case demand
- Lead Time Confirmation
- Must be confirmed directly with supplier – not copied from another brand
- Buffer for Identified Risks
- Only add if specific risk is documented (e.g., replacement lead time)
Release only sellable stock
Count and inspect received units against the approved specification. Separate sellable units from damaged, quarantined, committed and incoming units. Shopify, for example, distinguishes its on-hand total from available, committed and unavailable units, while incoming units are separate. Other systems need their own configuration checked. If a component appears in both an individual item and a bundle, prevent both offers from promising the same unit.
Offer only the quantity the business can identify, pack and dispatch under its stated terms. Decide in advance whether excess demand will pause sales or be offered under an accurate later availability date. Once trading begins, compare actual orders by variant with the assumptions. Record corrections, cancellations and returns separately; launch traffic may differ from later trading.
